When Do Ticket Prices Drop? What Drives Resale Prices

By the Good Seats editorial teamUpdated October 1, 2026How we research

The honest answer: demand sets the timing, not the calendar

There is no guaranteed day when ticket prices drop. Resale prices tend to fall as an event approaches only when there are more tickets listed than buyers willing to pay the asking price; when an event is scarce, prices hold or climb right up to the start.

That is why advice such as "always buy the day of the show" or "Tuesday is the cheapest day" fails so often. A regular-season baseball game with thousands of seats left behaves nothing like a farewell tour, a rivalry game or a championship. The useful skill is not memorizing a date. It is recognizing which kind of market you are in, and deciding how much risk of missing out you are willing to accept in exchange for a possible lower price.

This guide explains how ticket prices are set in the first place, what published research actually found about late price cuts, the demand drivers that push prices up or down, and a practical way to time a purchase.

How ticket prices are set in the first place

Two markets set the price you see. The primary market is the first sale, where the team, promoter or venue sets face value (the price printed on the original ticket). The secondary market, or resale market, is where fans and professional brokers relist tickets they already hold at prices they choose.

Fixed and dynamic face values

Face value used to be a fixed number set months in advance. Many sellers now use dynamic pricing (adjusting the primary price up or down with demand, the way airlines price seats). The San Francisco Giants piloted it on about 2,000 seats in 2009 and extended it to the whole ballpark in 2010. Ticketmaster's demand-based pricing for concerts drew wide public criticism in 2022, when some "platinum" seats for Bruce Springsteen's tour sold far above standard face value. Dynamic pricing means the primary seller is also watching demand, so a face value you saw last month may not be the face value today.

Tickets that never reach the public onsale

Not every seat goes on sale at once. A 2018 report by the U.S. Government Accountability Office found that 10 to 30 percent of tickets for major concerts typically went to presales, and sometimes far more, and it cited a New York study in which about 16 percent were held back as holds for artists, promoters and venues. Released holds and returned presale inventory can add supply late, which is one reason prices sometimes soften closer to the date.

What the research on resale prices shows

The most cited study of resale timing is economist Andrew Sweeting's analysis of Major League Baseball tickets resold on eBay and StubHub during the 2007 season, published in the Journal of Political Economy in 2012. He found that sellers cut prices sharply as games approached, by 40 percent or more, with the steepest declines in the final month before a game. His explanation is simple: a ticket is a perishable good. Its value to the seller falls to zero at first pitch, so the cost of holding out for a high price rises every day. He also estimated that adjusting prices over time raised the average seller's expected payoff by about 16 percent.

Two cautions matter. The data are old, and they come from regular-season baseball, a sport with long home schedules and plenty of unsold inventory. High-demand concerts and one-off events often behave differently, and the study should be read as a historical pattern, not a promise. The full paper is available from the University of Maryland economics department.

Other research shows how far above face value resale can run for popular events. In the GAO's 2018 review of the ticket market, a small sample of events found resale listings ranging from somewhat above the primary price to many times it. A 2025 submission to the Maryland Attorney General by the National Independent Talent Organization, an advocacy group that favors resale limits, estimated that average resale tickets for Maryland concerts cost about twice the average face value. Taken together, the evidence says resale prices fall late when supply is plentiful and stay high when it is not.

Even the concert business as a whole does not move in one direction. Pollstar reported that the average ticket price for its 2025 worldwide Top 100 tours slipped 2.4 percent from the year before, after years of increases.

The demand drivers that move prices

Before deciding to wait, check the forces that set demand for your specific event.

Scarcity of the performer or matchup. A tour with few dates, a final season or a once-a-year event leaves little room for prices to fall. A team that visits every season does not.
Opponent and stakes. Rivalry games, playoff races and postseason games draw buyers who will pay to be there. A late-season game between eliminated teams often draws the opposite.
Day and time. Friday and Saturday nights and holiday weekends usually attract more buyers than weeknights and weekday afternoons.
Venue size versus fan base. An artist who could fill a stadium playing an arena creates a shortage; an arena act booked into a stadium creates a surplus.
Travel demand. Destination events pull in visitors. The Sports Events and Tourism Association counted 109.7 million spectators who traveled 50 miles or more to sporting events in 2024, and those buyers often commit early.
Weather and outdoor exposure. A cold or rainy forecast for an open-air stadium can loosen prices in the final days.
Listing volume. The number of tickets for sale matters as much as price. A rising count of listings signals sellers competing for buyers; a shrinking count signals the opposite.

Events that tend to soften, and events that rarely do

Some events give a patient buyer room to wait. Regular-season games against non-rival opponents, weeknight dates in large venues, and second or third added shows in the same city all tend to carry more inventory than buyers. These are the markets that look most like the baseball games in Sweeting's data.

Other events rarely reward waiting. Championship games, the Super Bowl, a major rivalry, an artist's only stop in a region and the opening weeks of a hit Broadway show tend to sell through. Broadway as a whole filled 91.2 percent of available seats in the 2024 to 2025 season, according to the Broadway League, which leaves little slack in the most popular houses.

Seat count matters too. A single seat is often easier to find late than a block of four together, because sellers struggle to move singles and groups compete for the same contiguous rows.

A practical plan for timing your purchase

Treat timing as a risk decision rather than a guessing game.

Decide what missing the event would cost you. If you are traveling, celebrating or bringing children who are counting on it, buy when you find seats and a total you can accept. Waiting is a bet, and you should only make bets you can afford to lose.
Set a target before you shop. Pick a section range and an all-in total. Under the Federal Trade Commission's rule on unfair or deceptive fees, which took effect May 12, 2025, sellers must show the total price of live-event tickets clearly and prominently, so compare totals, not base prices. The rule is published in the Federal Register.
Watch the listing count, not only the price. Check the same event every few days. More listings and falling prices suggest a soft market; fewer listings suggest a firm one.
Know your deadline. Mobile tickets have to be transferred to you, so leave time before the event for delivery and for setting up the right app.
Consider alternatives to the one date. A weeknight show, a different opponent or a nearby city can change the market entirely.

Whichever moment you choose, every GoodSeats order is backed by a 100% guarantee.

Common timing myths

"Prices always crash on the day of the event." They sometimes do for soft events, but the last-minute buyer also competes for a shrinking pool of seats and has no time to fix a delivery problem.

"Face value is the floor." Resale prices can fall below face value when demand is weak, and dynamic primary prices can drop too.

"There is a best day of the week to buy." No published study supports a universal best weekday for buying event tickets. Demand for the event itself matters far more than the day you click buy.

"Buying at the onsale always gets the lowest price." For high-demand events, the onsale often is the best chance at face value. For soft events, it may be the highest price you will see.

Frequently asked questions

Is there a specific day when ticket prices drop?

No. Resale prices tend to fall close to an event only when supply exceeds demand. For sellouts and high-demand events, prices often hold or rise until the start.

Do ticket prices go down closer to the event?

Often, for events with plenty of unsold seats. A study of 2007 Major League Baseball resale found prices fell 40 percent or more as games approached, mostly in the final month, but high-demand concerts frequently behave differently.

What is dynamic pricing for tickets?

Dynamic pricing means the primary seller adjusts face value up or down with demand, similar to airline fares. The San Francisco Giants adopted it ballpark-wide in 2010, and it is now common in sports and concerts.

Can resale tickets cost less than face value?

Yes. When demand is weak, resale sellers often list below face value to recover part of their cost before the ticket expires at the event.

Is it risky to wait until the last minute to buy?

Yes. You may pay less for a soft event, but you also risk fewer seat choices, higher prices for popular events and no time to resolve a mobile transfer problem.

When Do Ticket Prices Drop?